Sunday Business Post, 30 April 2006
Monitoring report turns up heat on unionist leaders
"Of concern to republicans is the singling out of individual (former) members of the
IRA who are allegedly involved in criminal activity. There are an estimated
10,000 people in Ireland who have been jailed for IRA activities (during the troubles).
If the personal actions of any of these 10,000 individuals were used as
‘‘proof’’ that the IRA is not committed to the peace process, it could lead
to a never-ending cycle of political delay and place an unreasonable burden
on the republican leadership.
...
After almost 40 years of (unionist leaders) blaming the IRA for all of the North’s woes and as
a reason for refusing to negotiate with republicans, it seems that the IRA
has now left the stage.
When the IRA declared its ceasefire in August 1994 the then leader of the
Ulster Unionist Party, James Molyneaux, said it was the most ‘‘destabilising
event to happen to Northern Ireland in 70 years’’."
30 April 2006 By Colm Heatley
Over the past decade the peace process has been known for its
stage-management, its carefully co-ordinated statements and events that have
moved it forward at critical junctures.
Last week’s Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) is part of that
choreography.
Described by Bertie Ahern as the most positive statement yet and welcomed in
London and Washington, the tenth IMC report stated that the IRA was
committed to peace and had ‘‘expended considerable effort’’ in achieving
this objective. The report also claimed that individual members of the IRA
were involved in freelance crime.
However, its positive tone will be used to set the mood music for a rapid
series of major political initiatives that will begin in a fortnight’s time
when the Assembly will be recalled for the first time in almost four years.
The positive report increases the pressure on the DUP to do a deal with Sinn
Fein. The report was published just 48 hours after the Northern secretary of
state Peter Hain told unionists that they could no longer use the excuse of
IRA violence to halt political progress. ‘‘I don’t think that any politician
can use the excuse for much longer that the IRA poses a terrorist threat as
a reason not to join in a power-sharing government,” he said.
DUP leader Ian Paisley, normally eager to seize on any allegation of
republican wrongdoing, said that the IMC report was proof of the success of
DUP strategy in ‘‘taming’’ the IRA. Had the report been negative it would
have decimated both governments’ plan to restore the Assembly and push ahead
with political progress.
Over the coming months the North’s politicians and both governments face a
number of challenges in order to keep the plan on track and maximise
pressure on the DUP to agree to share power in November.
A pivotal factor will be the IMC’s next report, due to be published just a
week before the November 24 power-sharing deadline. When the Assembly meets
on May 15 it will most likely fail to elect a power-sharing government
because of DUP opposition.
However, it will be given six weeks to go through the motions before it is
formally suspended for the duration of the marching season, the most
politically sensitive and potentially explosive time of year in the North.
During July and August a number of contentious Orange Order parades will
take place along interface areas in Ardoyne, west Belfast and around the six
counties.
Last year the re-routing of an Orange parade from the nationalist
Springfield Road in west Belfast sparked a week of violent clashes between
unionists and the PSNI. There were also clashes at the Ardoyne shops between
nationalist demonstrators and loyalist bandsmen. This summer it will be
imperative for these clashes to be avoided or at least minimised if a
positive atmosphere is to be maintained.
Already there are signals that representatives of the Orange Order are
prepared, for the first time, to sit down face-to-face with nationalist
residents to discuss a compromise deal. In the past the DUP and UUP have
used the marching season as a pretext for hyping Protestant fears over
power-sharing, and the hope will be that through dialogue that particular
scenario can be avoided. Last week’s IMC report painted a picture of an IRA
leadership completely dedicated to peace and ensuring its grass-roots
remained supportive of the strategy. In itself it will not be enough to
convince unionists that IRA activity has ended, but combined with a renewed
emphasis on the Assembly and a possible power-sharing deal, it is the belief
of both governments that the IMC report has provided the best possible start
to the political roadmap.
Of concern to republicans is the singling out of individual members of the
IRA who are allegedly involved in criminal activity. There are an estimated
10,000 people in Ireland who have been jailed for IRA activities.
If the personal actions of any of these 10,000 individuals were used as
‘‘proof’’ that the IRA is not committed to the peace process, it could lead
to a never-ending cycle of political delay and place an unreasonable burden
on the republican leadership.
Between now and November a key objective of republicans will be to ensure
that the IMC, whose legitimacy they do not recognise, will have nothing
negative to report.
The main result of the latest IMC report and Hain’s statement last Sunday is
to challenge unionist leaders.
After almost 40 years of blaming the IRA for all of the North’s woes and as
a reason for refusing to negotiate with republicans, it seems that the IRA
has now left the stage.
When the IRA declared its ceasefire in August 1994 the then leader of the
Ulster Unionist Party, James Molyneaux, said it was the most ‘‘destabilising
event to happen to Northern Ireland in 70 years’’.
When the Assembly is recalled in September it will have 12 weeks to elect a
power-sharing government. Undoubtedly there will be intense political
negotiations between and within all of the political parties.
However, for unionism those negotiations may well take place with the
knowledge that the IRA will be declared to have disappeared into the
background completely, removing one of the oldest reasons for non-engagement
with republicans.
