Few signs of compromise as deadlock hits Stormont

By David McKittrick, Ireland Correspondent

30 November 2003

The Government yesterday began picking up the pieces in the Northern Ireland peace process after the generally unwelcome outcome of the Belfast Assembly election.

The emergence of the Reverend Ian Paisley as the primary voice of Ulster Unionism is seen as hugely complicating the putting together of a new powersharing devolved administration in Belfast. The search is on for signs of flexibility within his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP); some hope that his more pragmatic deputy Peter Robinson might be prepared to soften the party's hard line.

But the prevailing view is that the prospects of the DUP reaching a deal which would include Sinn Fein are remote so long as Mr Paisley is at the helm. The line of both London and Dublin - and indeed all of the major local parties - is that the Good Friday Agreement is the only show in town. They have already rejected DUP demands for a renegotiation. In a statement the two governments declared: "In our firm view, the Agreement remains the only viable political framework that is capable of securing the support of both communities. Its fundamentals are not open to renegotiation."

The DUP success in overtaking David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) to become Northern Ireland's largest party has caused deadlock in the peace process. Ian Paisley Junior said yesterday that a new agreement was needed: "It's dead in the water. The Agreement is over - that was the message of this election." As the major Unionist party Mr Paisley has a veto on whether a new administration can be formed, and there is no chance of him reaching an accommodation with the largest nationalist party, which is now Sinn Fein.

The republicans decisively overtook the more moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), winning 24 seats to the SDLP's 18. The DUP won 30 Assembly seats, an increase of 10, while the Ulster Unionists lost one seat to finish with 27. Five of the new UUP members are also seen as anti-Agreement.

The fact that the DUP finished first - after decades of trying - has altered the balance of power within Unionism. His long-time rival Jeffrey Donaldson is calling for his resignation. Mr Trimble said yesterday he had no plans to step down. "I am not minded to go. In fact, I have been very much encouraged by the people who, ... have been urging me not to think about these matters. This is not the time to abandon one's post and one's responsibilities and to put one's own personal preferences ahead of the public interest." He forecast deadlock "for the next few months" but said a majority of the population still favoured the Agreement. The Government has several options, which include calling fresh elections or altering the terms of the Good Friday Agreement to allow Mr Trimble to form a coalition government based on a minority of Assembly Unionists.

However, all have major drawbacks, so for the immediate future it is deadlock. The Government's dilemma is that while around two-thirds of members of the new Assembly are pro-Agreement, its intricate system is built on support from a majority of Unionists and of nationalists. While both nationalist parties support the Agreement the election has produced an anti-Agreement majority within Unionism.

Northern Ireland Secretary Paul Murphy yesterday met the Ulster Unionists, Sinn Fein and the SDLP for talks, and is to meet the DUP tomorrow. He said progress would be difficult but not impossible: "The Agreement is not dead, most people in Northern Ireland want it to work. I am not underestimating the difficulties, but... we can make progress."