BELFAST, Northern Ireland - It's called big-time pressure. Two prime ministers and President Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland are all calling on the Irish Republican Army to permanently close up shop in order to rescue the peace process.

"There's enough (IRA dissident) clowns about the place who think success is just a matter of waving a gun in front of people,'' said Philip Rooney of East Belfast's small pro-Irish nationalist Short Strand district. ``The only thing that's been stopping that is the IRA. If there's no IRA, there's going to be nobody to police the peace."

Like most people here, Rooney has been closely following events in the wake of Thursday's dramatic cancellation of the publication of an Anglo-Irish blueprint to break the current political logjam.

British and Irish spin doctors said a draft IRA statement produced Wednesday was too vaguely worded to convince pro-British unionists the IRA is calling it a day. Sinn Fein hotly denies this. They said Thursday's unveiling fell through because agreement hadn't been reached on several key issues.

On Friday, Richard Haass, President Bush's point man on Northern Ireland, urged the IRA "to take positions that would mark a historic transformation of the situation".

Behind-the-scenes talks have continued since Thursday.

With luck, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern could return here tomorrow to unveil their plan - which aims to secure 'acts of completion' on issues like British Army demilitarization, policing and judicial reform, and paramilitary disarmament.

But Philip Rooney believes full IRA disbandment and disarmament won't happen for years.

"There is no way in this world that the IRA is going to decommission weapons around here, because it's just too close to the knuckle," he said. "The present IRA superseded the old IRA because they gave away guns and left areas like this undefended."

Today's IRA - the Provisional IRA - was born when the IRA split in 1969 because the Dublin-based leadership failed to defend nationalist areas of Belfast from intensive loyalist attacks.

In June 1970, three Provisional IRA gunmen used a sniping perch in the steeple of St. Matthew's Catholic Church to defend the Short Strand against a mob of attacking loyalists. Three loyalists and one IRA man died in a gun battle that cemented the IRA's role as a defender of the area.

Last summer, the Short Strand was again under attack from loyalists, during violence which saw dozens of nationalist and loyalist homes trashed by attackers from the other side.

"Last year, this area was defended, basically, by the IRA," said Rooney, whose home was on the front line. "They were here nightly until 4 o'clock in the morning, putting themselves out. And they didn't have to do that."

Adding to the drama is the fact that this year's Protestant summer marching season is looming.

Rooney and others have large plywood sheets leaning against their houses, ready to cover windows if the bricks and pipe bombs start flying again.

"People want to move to the stage where the IRA aren't necessary," Rooney said. "But at this stage, to be honest, people aren't even considering the fact that there won't be an IRA."